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【Ferro-alloys.com】: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in January 2025, China's bauxite imports reached 16.21 million metric tonnes, marking an 8.23 per cent increase month-on-month and a 23.31 per cent rise year-on-year. In February, bauxite imports were reported at 14.41 million tonnes, down 11.06 per cent M-o-M but up 28.25 per cent Y-o-Y. For the first two months of 2025, the cumulative bauxite imports amounted to 30.62 million tonnes, representing a 25.6 per cent Y-o-Y increase.

Major bauxite import sources:

Guinea:

January 2025: Imports from Guinea stood at 12.661 million tonnes, up 21.9 per cent M-o-M and 37.18 per cent Y-o-Y.

February 2025: Imports fell to 10.729 million tonnes, down 15.26 per cent M-o-M but up 21.17 per cent Y-o-Y.

This significant YoY increase in bauxite imports from Guinea can be attributed to a substantial rise in CIF prices starting from November 2024. This price hike boosted shipping enthusiasm among Guinean miners, resulting in a noticeable increase in shipments. Given the impact of shipping times, China's bauxite imports from Guinea saw a clear rise in January-February. From January to mid-March 2025, the daily average shipment volume from Guinea increased compared to November-December 2024, suggesting that bauxite imports from Guinea are likely to rise again in March-April 2025.

Australia:

January 2025: Imports from Australia were 2.922 million tonnes.

February 2025: Imports dropped to 2.363 million tonnes.

This decline was primarily due to the onset of the rainy season in Australia, which significantly reduced the bauxite supply. However, starting from mid-March, the impact of the rainy season weakened, causing shipment volumes to rebound. Consequently, Australian bauxite imports are also expected to see a rebound in March-April 2025.

Non-major bauxite import sources:

From January to February 2025, bauxite imports from countries such as Turkey, Laos, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Malaysia, Montenegro, India, Pakistan, and Guyana totaled 1.95 million mt. This represents a 139 per cent Y-o-Y increase, accounting for 6.36 per cent of total imports.

SMM brief comment:

In the short term, alumina refineries might cut production under the pressure of losses, potentially leading to a decline in bauxite demand. On the supply side, imported bauxite is expected to show a growing trend, particularly with a notable increase from Guinea. Thus, the fundamental supply and demand situation for bauxite might shift towards a relatively loose pattern, placing pressure on bauxite prices in the near term.

• [Editor:Alakay]